This will be a brief post, but I think Canada Goose is a fantastic luxury brand. Someone buying GOOS stock today is still coming in very early in its life cycle.
A quick digression first: What makes LVMH so great? It’s composed of premium, luxury brands that we all know. Louis Vuitton, Moët, and Hennessy are products that elicit a good feeling whenever you buy them, even if you know the price is a little wild. For some of their consumers, they don’t even look at the price.
I think it’s obvious why LVMH tried to acquire Tiffany then. It exhibits the same characteristics. But alas, the Tiffany’s deal has seemingly failed (for now). Tiffany has high mall / retail exposure and weddings this year are clearly being pushed. I’m sure LVMH is still interested in owning Tiffany’s, just at a lower price.
But as I mentioned in a post on what drives long-term shareholder returns, these brands are able to increase price ahead of inflation, which drives great top line performance and even better bottom line performance. It’s no wonder that these companies have compounded at such high rates (LVMH especially).
But brands are tough. You have to make a feel on how powerful the brand is. Do I think YETI has a strong brand? Yes. But maybe just for now… People may not think it’s very cool or iconic to have that brand of $300 cooler in 5 years from now. Its possible. I do, in fact, have a YETI koozie.
Investing in brands is hard. Picking winners and losers in not easy. Some people though GoPro had a good brand that would protect it in the harsh hardware world. Blackberry was also a ubiquitous brand, but then another brand came along that is more ubiquitous. Victoria Secret seems to be losing share, Lululemon seems to be gaining share…
I could go on, but the point is understand those risks. I just think Canada Goose is different. Footnote, I don’t have one of these jackets despite living in an area that gets very cold. I view it like a Ferrari of jackets.
Here’s another anecdote, one of my close friends shared that she had an early version of the Canada Goose jacket. She held on to that jacket for probably 4-5 years and then sold it online for nearly what she paid for it. That is amazing brand power.
I think the GOOS stock is worth a bet for several reasons (please do not miss the DTC bullet near the end):
- Best in class brand
- Long-term optionality to expand outside of just outdoor jackets
- GOOS did $400MM of sales in FY2017 which has doubled in LTM June 30 2020. It’s still early days.
- Right now, the bulk of sales comes from selling $1,000+ intense weather jackets. They could easily leverage the brand into other weather gear
- Still very early days (opening up 4 retail stores in China)
- Right now, the company mainly sells through wholesale distribution (i.e. Canada Goose jackets in other peoples stores), but they have launched their own stores
- Right now they just operate 20 stores themselves, but as they grow and expand the brand, it’s possible to see the number of stores increase by a few multiples of the current amount.
- I’m writing this in COVID-19, a global pandemic that has caused a steep rise in unemployment. However, the cohort of people who are buying Canada Goose are likely the same cohort that has seen very limited employment impacts this year.
- LVMH, for example, saw sales +4% in 2008 and roughly flat in 2009 in what was close to a Great Depression
- GOOS sales will be down this year (consensus has down ~20%), but as the pandemic subsides I think they will still be here and be back on track. If anything, consensus probably underestimates mix shift and underestimates new launches from the company.
- This winter could surprise to the upside
- Yes, if everyone is still working from home, it’s less about buying that jacket to show off. However, if everyone is still at home, they’ll pay whatever it takes to keep being able to take long strolls.
- This could accelerate direct-to-consumer conversion
- “Today’s reality has reinforced long-standing pillars of Canada Goose’s DTC strategy: globally scalable in-house e-Commerce and omni-channel innovation. With digital adoption rising rapidly, the Company has increased and accelerated investments in these areas going into the Fall / Winter season. This includes the launch of mobile omni-channel capabilities in U.S. stores, following a successful pilot in Canada, and a cross-border solution to expand international access.”
- DTC represent 55% of revenue today. However, it has an operating margin of 47%. If mix shift goes more and more towards DTC, that would be very positive for the company (total operating margins are around 20% on a normalized basis).
- For example of how this could impact the company, GOOS did $193MM of EBIT for the 12 months ending 3/30/2020 on $958MM of sales (20% margin). If the company grows to $1.2BN of sales and 65% of that is DTC at 47% operating margin, they would produce around $365MM of operating income from just DTC, or about double the TOTAL EBIT they do today