When I look around at the risks facing the market expectation, there is one main concern I have. The Bullwhip Effect. via GIPHY We saw a massive “destocking” of inventories occur in 2020 (the initial response to the pandemic). Then, a massive “restocking” occurred as demand returned with limited inventories. …

In my ’22 outlook piece, I said I am bullish on auto supplier stocks: When do you have recession levels of production, but demand has already improved drastically? Even if demand slows, production has to be elevated to restock the channel. Investors are always worried about demand and production levels …

I had a pretty good 2021. $SPY was up about 28% this year and I am up about 33% in my PA. My PA is a bit different than what I write up on here though. My main benchmark I use too is the Russell 3000 to capture an apples-to-apples …

ABM reported a fine Q3’21 – EBITDA increased 20% on a 14% increase in sales and was slightly ahead of expectations. However, the stock is down about 10% since reporting and was down >15% at one point. Must be a terrible outlook, right? Well, their EPS guide at midpoint was …

In my original post on Entegris stock, I mentioned “there actually is a second player as well I am reviewing, but haven’t gotten fully comfortable yet.” That player was CMC materials, or $CCMP. I have followed CCMP for many years but it was run somewhat like a “public” private equity …

The WSJ wrote back in May 2021 of the “The Safe, High-Return Trade Hiding in Plain Sight”, which discussed Series I bonds. Series I bonds are 30-year US treasury bonds that earns fixed interest with an adjustment to the rate to account for inflation (changes in CPI-U, semi-annually). However, they …

Tax loss harvesting is something I tend to think about after a strong year of equity returns. I find myself asking if I should reduce risk in some names or at least re-balance the portfolio. The problem is that this can create significant capital gains. That said, if you are …

“Past performance is not indicative of future results” you say as you read this post. But it can be a tool for analyzing what asset allocation performed the best. The markets are particularly tough to apply history to, though, because of the wide amount of factors involved. Interest rates, valuations, …

No surprises here, when volatility reared its head throughout 2018, the “safety” classes outperformed risk. That should make intuitive sense, especially when considering the S&P500s 18.7% return in 2017 (and 21.4% when including dividends). But as we all should know, it pays in the longer term to have some diversification. …