Featured
- The Case for Credit Acceptance $CACC
I think despite Credit Acceptance Corp’s incredible stock performance, it still looks interesting. Credit Acceptance Corp (“CACC”) is “non-bank lender”, essentially meaning they make loans to borrowers who are deemed to be low credit quality. How low? As of the end of 2018, 96% of borrowers had FICO’s below 650. …
- Open Letter to B&G Food’s Management: IPO Green Giant & Create Shareholder Value $BGS
With a sagging stock price and disappointing underlying performance, I wanted to share my thoughts with B&G foods management (particularly CEO Ken Romanzi) on how to create the most shareholder value from here. Here is the play by play: IPO Green Giant as a separate company Use the capital from …
- Assessing the Age Old Question: Invest in Home Depot or Lowe’s? $HD $LOW
I’ve been studying Bill Ackman’s portfolio and strong performance so far in 2019 and it seems the hedge fund manager is getting back to his roots. Gone are the shorts in Herbalife and aggressive long in Valeant, and instead he has waved in a new era of “high-quality, simple, predictable, …
Recent Columns
- Hudson Enters New Deal with Lenders & Extends Runway – Thesis is Intact $HDSN
Hudson Technologies (HDSN) just filed an 8-k stating it entered a new revolver with Wells Fargo ($60MM of borrowing capacity) and terminated its one with PNC. It also received a waiver for its covenant default through December 2021. This is big news. This will surely buy the company time and …
- When buybacks fail… a quick look at IBM’s performance $IBM
I typically look for underappreciated, high FCF businesses that are shareholder friendly. As I was screening for new ideas, an old giant popped up – IBM. This is a personal opinion, but with so much focus on Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple it seems as though no one even …
- CorePoint Q3’19 results weak, as expected, but once again asset sales are the real story $CPLG
CorePoint reported weak Q3’19 results, but asset sales are the key to value creation
Personal Finance
Tax-loss harvesting is something I tend to think about after a strong year of equity returns. I find myself asking if I should reduce risk in some names or at least re-balance the portfolio. The problem is that this can create significant capital gains. That said, if you are like …
“Past performance is not indicative of future results” you say as you read this post. The markets are particularly tough to apply history to, though, because of the wide amount of factors involved. Interest rates, valuations, and broad based sentiment are very hard to control for. Imagine looking at the performance …
No surprises here, when volatility reared its head throughout 2018, the “safety” classes outperformed risk. That should make intuitive sense, especially when considering the S&P500s 18.7% return in 2017 (and 21.4% when including dividends). But as we all should know, it pays in the longer term to have some diversification. …
Market Recap
- Market Recap: Diverging Signals Among Asset Classes
Well this is odd. The S&P hit all time highs again, but rates have plummeted in response to (i) the Fed lowering rates and (ii) fear and uncertainty over trade wars, real wars with Iran, and the broader economic cycle. With the uncertainty, and with interest rates moving lower, the …
- Should Investors be Baking in a Rate Cut from the Fed?
Although the market was a little shaky after the Fed spoke on Wednesday, the S&P500 ended the week flat-to-up thanks to Friday, May 3rd’s rebound. According to the CME website, the odds of a rate cut (or the Fed lowering interest rates) are actually around 47% by Dec 2019 and …
- Market Recap: S&P Earnings are Halfway There + Unicorn Sightings
Market Recap for the week ended April 26th, 2019. Facebook and Amazon earnings, S&P valuation, and more Unicorn sightings