There are certain businesses that investors have washed their hands of: Retailers, OEM auto suppliers, anything in the way of ESG… many others… And this trade probably worked well for the last 5 years. I recently wrote up at least three names that are counter to these trends, but there …

I wrote previously about companies Berkshire Hathaway could potentially buy. One of those options actually was acquired, just not by BRK. But I think Allison Transmission ($ALSN) is another strong candidate. Why do I say that? ALSN is the market leader in fully automatic transmissions for medium-to-heavy duty commercial vehicles …

American Axle is a crappy company. But I currently view that we are going to see a large increase in auto production to (i) meet demand which we are unable to do right now and (ii) restock to baseline inventory levels. So with the stock at a ~40% FCF yield, …

This update will be brief, but I wanted to highlight that ABM recently reported last week, following its M&A announcement that I covered in this note. When I first wrote about ABM stock, I said (i) guidance was way too low, and I expect a lift in guidance across the …

$BIG reported today, August 27th and it was a miss. Guidance was also worse than expected. EPS was $1.09 vs. $1.12 consensus Comps were -13.2% vs. -11.4% consensus (but they were lapping a +31% Q) ’21 EPS guide was $5.90-6.05 vs $6.66 consensus, with the company calling out freight and …

ABM has not been a great performing stock for me (compared to investing in the Russel 3k which I comp myself to). But the pieces are falling into place. When I first wrote up ABM in June, I said the following outcomes I saw as high probability: ABM also has …

Tax loss harvesting is something I tend to think about after a strong year of equity returns. I find myself asking if I should reduce risk in some names or at least re-balance the portfolio. The problem is that this can create significant capital gains. That said, if you are …

“Past performance is not indicative of future results” you say as you read this post. But it can be a tool for analyzing what asset allocation performed the best. The markets are particularly tough to apply history to, though, because of the wide amount of factors involved. Interest rates, valuations, …

No surprises here, when volatility reared its head throughout 2018, the “safety” classes outperformed risk. That should make intuitive sense, especially when considering the S&P500s 18.7% return in 2017 (and 21.4% when including dividends). But as we all should know, it pays in the longer term to have some diversification. …